{"id":5648,"date":"2026-03-06T17:26:59","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T17:26:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marketsfortress.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/06\/home-loans-gas-groceries-how-the-iran-war-could-upend-trumps-touted-economic-gainshigher-home-loansstock-market\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T17:26:59","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T17:26:59","slug":"home-loans-gas-groceries-how-the-iran-war-could-upend-trumps-touted-economic-gainshigher-home-loansstock-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marketsfortress.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/06\/home-loans-gas-groceries-how-the-iran-war-could-upend-trumps-touted-economic-gainshigher-home-loansstock-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Home loans, gas, groceries: How the Iran war could upend Trump’s touted economic gainsHigher home loansStock market"},"content":{"rendered":"

A week ago, President Donald Trump stood before Congress and made the case that his economic agenda was working. The stock market was up, gas prices were down, inflation was slowing and mortgage rates were dropping. <\/p>\n

Less than four days later, he began bombing Iran and threw those gains into jeopardy. <\/p>\n

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Aside from the human toll from the war, the fighting in the Middle East has rattled markets and upended supply chains, threatening to drive prices higher for American consumers on everything from home loans to groceries. It comes as Americans already have an increasingly negative view <\/a>of the economy, with consumer sentiment falling over the past year. <\/p>\n

The extent of the economic impact from the war with Iran will depend on how long it lasts, and it will take time for the effects to trickle down to consumers. Trump has said the conflict could last four to five weeks, but on Tuesday he indicated it could stretch longer<\/a>. <\/p>\n

While it\u2019s unclear what comes next, here are some of the ways the war is already jeopardizing the Trump administration\u2019s economic gains:<\/p>\n

One of the most notable improvements in the economy, which Trump has frequently touted, has been declining gas prices. During his State of the Union address, Trump said the price of gas under former President Joe Biden \u201cwas quite honestly a disaster,\u201d before describing how low gas prices had fallen during the first year of his second term. <\/p>\n

The numbers Trump cited were misleadingly low \u2014 he claimed, for instance, gas in Iowa was $1.85, but the only fuel that has been near that price there is a special blend of ethanol fuel used in a fraction of vehicles. Still, the average price for a gallon of gas last year was down to $3.10, a 21-cent drop<\/a> compared to the prior year. Gas prices had fallen further in January, but over the past week have jumped 22 cents<\/a>, to $3.20 a gallon, according to AAA. Gas prices could rise another 10 to 30 cents per gallon over the next two weeks, according to gas price tracker Gas Buddy. <\/p>\n

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Iran produces a small share of the world\u2019s oil, but the fighting in the region has shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway in the Persian Gulf that provides passage to more than 20%<\/a> of the world\u2019s oil. The shipping disruption has caused Iraq to cut its oil production<\/a> because, with exports at a standstill, its storage facilities were filling up.<\/p>\n

Trump has acknowledged that oil prices will go up as a result of the conflict, but indicated he is taking steps to get shipments moving in the region. He said in a social media <\/a>post Tuesday that the U.S. Navy could escort ships through the passageway \u201cif necessary,\u201d and that the U.S. would offer insurance guarantees to shippers, though he didn\u2019t offer further details. <\/p>\n

\u201cIf we have a little high oil prices for a little while \u2014 but as soon as this ends, those prices are going to drop, I believe, lower than ever before,\u201d Trump said on Tuesday. <\/p>\n

Another option to try to lower prices would be releasing oil from the country\u2019s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, oil industry analysts have suggested. <\/p>\n

\u201cU.S. government is going to step in, and when it is appropriate and should it be needed, the U.S. Navy will provide safe passage through the straits there for the oil tankers,\u201d Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday<\/a> on CNBC.\u200b\u200b<\/p>\n

Inflation has been slowing over the past year<\/a>, and though it\u2019s still slightly higher than the Federal Reserve\u2019s target, it is down from the decades-high seen in 2022. That has given Trump a key selling point for his economic agenda. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe Biden administration and its allies in Congress gave us the worst inflation in the history of our country,\u201d Trump said during the State of the Union last week. \u201cBut in 12 months, my administration has driven core inflation down to the lowest level in more than five years.\u201d<\/p>\n

But prices could begin to tick up at a faster rate amid the bombings in the Middle East. Goldman Sachs estimated that inflation could rise to 2.7% by May from the rate of 2.4% in December. <\/p>\n

\u201cIf it\u2019s not prolonged it\u2019s not going to be a major inflationary hit,\u201d JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC<\/a> on Monday. \u201cIf it went on for a long time, that would be different.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Strait of Hormuz also handles about one-third of the world\u2019s fertilizer<\/a>. Fertilizer prices, which were already at their highest levels in decades, have been rising over the past week. This comes at a bad time for farmers in much of the U.S. who are preparing for the spring planting season. <\/p>\n

The war in the Middle East is also threatening to disrupt global supply chains, with some companies already rerouting shipments away from the region. Global shipping giant Maersk said it would stop sending<\/a> some of its ships through the Red Sea, rerouting them on a much longer route around the southern tip of Africa. At least one container ship has been hit in the region<\/a> since the war began. <\/p>\n

Air cargo has also been disrupted because of air travel restrictions. About 13% of air cargo <\/a>goes through the Middle East, either on cargo planes or in the bellies of commercial airliners. <\/p>\n

Trump threw another wrench into global trade on Tuesday, saying the U.S. would cut off <\/a>all trade with Spain because of the country\u2019s lack of support for the attacks on Iran. <\/p>\n

The U.S. housing market might seem far removed from the fighting in the Middle East, but the war with Iran is driving mortgage interest rates higher, making it more expensive for Americans to borrow money for a home. <\/p>\n

Housing affordability has been a top issue for Americans in recent years, and in his State of the Union, Trump claimed that the average mortgage payment was down by $5,000 a year, as mortgage interest rates declined from nearly 7% when he took office to 5.98% before the attacks on Iran. <\/p>\n

But those rates have been rising again this week and were up to 6.13% on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage on Tuesday before ticking down slightly on Wednesday, according to Mortgage News Daily. Mortgage rates are closely linked to the price of U.S.10-year Treasury bonds, and the yield on those bonds has gone up in recent days amid concerns the conflict will contribute to higher inflation. <\/p>\n

Higher inflation, a measure of how much prices are increasing, could also cause the Federal Reserve to hit the brakes on interest rate cuts, which are also linked to home mortgage rates. <\/p>\n

The White House said the administration will continue its economic strategy of lower taxes, fewer regulations and more tariffs.<\/p>\n

\u201cAmericans can rest assured that as this agenda continues taking effect, and as Congress passes more of the President\u2019s healthcare and housing affordability agenda, the best is yet to come in the second Trump term,\u201d White House spokesman Kush Desai said.<\/p>\n

One of the key drivers of the economy during Trump\u2019s first year of his second term has been gains in the stock market, with the S&P 500 up 13% during those 12 months. That has especially benefited wealthier households, which are the most likely to own stocks and have been driving a significant amount of spending. <\/p>\n

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\u201cWe have millions and millions of people, because the stock market has done so well, setting all those records \u2014 your 401(k)s are way up,\u201d Trump said during the State of the Union. <\/p>\n

But the fighting in the Middle East has weighed on stocks this week; after a volatile few days, the market recovered somewhat on Wednesday though is still up less than 1% for the year. There have also been winners in the market \u2014 defense contractors RTX Corp, Northrop Grumman and Axon Enterprises all saw their shares jump this week. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A week ago, President Donald Trump stood before Congress and made the case that his economic agenda was working. The stock market was up, gas prices were down, inflation was slowing and mortgage rates were dropping. Less than four days later, he began bombing Iran and threw those gains into jeopardy. Aside from the human <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":5649,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-5648","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/marketsfortress.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5648","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/marketsfortress.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/marketsfortress.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marketsfortress.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5648"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/marketsfortress.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5648\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marketsfortress.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5649"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/marketsfortress.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5648"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marketsfortress.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5648"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marketsfortress.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5648"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}