Since the rise of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela in 1999, Cuba has depended heavily on Venezuela for subsidized oil in exchange for Cuban medical professionals, military advisers, security forces and others. Without Venezuelan oil, Cuba\u2019s economy, which is already in a deep crisis, will likely spiral even further.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf oil supply were to cease entirely, the Cuban economy would grind to a halt,\u201d said Pavel Vidal, a former Cuban central bank economist who teaches at Javeriana University in Colombia. \u201cThis would represent a devastating blow to a Cuban economy already in recession for six years and lacking the productive capacity, competitiveness and foreign currency to replace these flows.\u201d <\/p>\n
In Cuba, where everyday people are accustomed to the dire economic situation, many are bracing themselves for even tougher conditions following the U.S. actions in Venezuela. The island and its government survived the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s when its economy shrank by roughly 30%.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe situation here is going to become very difficult,\u201d said Rey Rodriguez, a butcher. \u201cImagine what awaits us. Less oil, more blackouts \u2026 young people are going to become even more pessimistic.\u201d<\/p>\n
There are no oil tankers leaving Venezuela for Cuba based on satellite tracking services, according to Jorge Pi\u00f1\u00f3n, an energy expert at the University of Texas at Austin Energy Institute. It doesn\u2019t mean \u201cghost ships\u201d with their transponders turned off haven\u2019t slipped in.<\/p>\n
Venezuela usually sends three or four tankers per month, which adds up to 30,000 to 35,000 barrels per day. <\/p>\n
\u201cThat\u2019s why the Venezuelan supply is so important, because those 30,000 to 35,000 barrels a day represent 50% of the deficit that Cuba has of oil,\u201d Pi\u00f1\u00f3n said. The rest is supplied by Mexico and Russia.<\/p>\n Weeks before the U.S. actions in Venezuela, Cuban President Miguel D\u00edaz-Canel gave a bleak outlook of the economy during a speech at the National Assembly, saying the country\u2019s gross domestic product decreased over 4%, inflation shot up and the economy was \u201cpartially paralyzed.\u201d<\/p>\n Content creator Pedro Luis Garc\u00eda said: \u201cWe don\u2019t know what the economic situation will be, but it will likely worsen because of the oil. But I don\u2019t think there can be a change of government, because the problems have been around since 1962, and this government is prepared for these types of situations.\u201d<\/p>\n Cubans, under U.S. sanctions for decades, have been dealing with severe shortages of food, medicine and fuel for the past few years, as the import-dependent island has seen its foreign currency revenues fall by about 30%. <\/p>\n Its tourism sector, the second most important source of revenue for the government, has taken a hit in recent years and could drop even further if conditions on the island worsen.<\/p>\n Cuba is also grappling with a trifecta of mosquito-borne illnesses<\/a> including dengue and chikungunya virus that have affected almost one-third of the population. The situation has worsened with the government\u2019s inability to clear piles of trash that accumulate on streets and to carry out fumigation campaigns. <\/p>\n For the past year, Cubans have faced prolonged blackouts because of the island\u2019s aging oil-fired power plants. Cuba\u2019s grid collapsed several times<\/a> last year because of the outdated infrastructure and fuel shortages. Declining oil imports from Venezuela, Russia and Mexico have led to the rationing of electricity. The capital, Havana, once insulated from blackouts, now faces 10 hours or more without electricity each day. In other parts of the country, the blackouts can extend to 20 hours. <\/p>\n Oil shipments from Venezuela are likely to stop if Trump gets his way. <\/p>\n Cuba\u2019s second biggest supplier of oil, Mexico, is also facing pressure from Trump. He recently suggested the U.S. can take action against the country, saying drugs were \u201cpouring\u201d through Mexico and that \u201cwe\u2019re going to have to do something.\u201d<\/p>\n The day Maduro was captured, Cuba\u2019s president condemned and denounced the U.S. actions in a defiant speech<\/a>. D\u00edaz-Canel said that U.S. actions were not about Maduro, his government or even drug trafficking, but that the \u201cobscure object of imperialist desire was Venezuelan petroleum, the lands and natural resources of Venezuela.\u201d <\/p>\n D\u00edaz-Canel also said that \u201cfor Venezuela, and of course also for Cuba, we are willing to give our own blood, even our own lives, at a very high price.\u201d <\/p>\n Cuba\u2019s government said 32 of its military and security personnel were killed Saturday. <\/p>\n Cuba\u2019s state-run media, including television and the official newspaper Granma, published pictures of the 32 officers killed, along with their names, ages and ranks. <\/p>\n In an interview with \u201cMeet the Press,\u201d<\/a> <\/a>Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, declined to say what kind of further actions the U.S. could take against Cuba.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019m not going to talk to you about what our future steps are going to be and our policies are going to be right now in this regard,\u201d he said. \u201cBut I don\u2019t think it\u2019s any mystery that we are not big fans of the Cuban regime.\u201d<\/p>\n Cuba is already under heavy U.S. sanctions, but there are still other actions the U.S. can take. During Trump\u2019s first administration, the U.S. banned all flights<\/a> to Cuba except for Havana. <\/p>\n In Havana, former senior Cuban diplomat Carlos Alzugaray told NBC News, \u201cWe need to see what repercussions this will have. But the world hasn\u2019t ended as it seemed, and as Marco Rubio and Donald Trump would like to portray it.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cI believe they are using intimidation to see if they can affect relations between Venezuela and Cuba, which I would say are not currently affected because Cuba and most Cubans support Venezuela in condemning the U.S. aggression,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Alzugaray added that Cuba\u2019s government should be in the midst of intense conversations and consultations with its allies, like China and Russia. <\/p>\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/media-cldnry.s-nbcnews.com\/image\/upload\/t_fit-760w,f_auto,q_auto:best\/rockcms\/2026-01\/260106-havana-gk-dc19e7.jpg\")