{"id":3809,"date":"2025-10-07T11:24:28","date_gmt":"2025-10-07T11:24:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marketsfortress.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/07\/government-shutdown-delays-key-monthly-jobs-report-at-a-pivotal-moment-for-the-u-s-economy\/"},"modified":"2025-10-07T11:24:28","modified_gmt":"2025-10-07T11:24:28","slug":"government-shutdown-delays-key-monthly-jobs-report-at-a-pivotal-moment-for-the-u-s-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marketsfortress.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/07\/government-shutdown-delays-key-monthly-jobs-report-at-a-pivotal-moment-for-the-u-s-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"Government shutdown delays key monthly jobs report at a pivotal moment for the U.S. economy"},"content":{"rendered":"

For people who closely follow the U.S. economy<\/a>, the first Friday of every month<\/a> is known as \u201cjobs Friday,\u201d when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the previous month\u2019s employment report<\/a> at precisely 8:30 a.m. ET. <\/p>\n

But on this jobs Friday, September’s employment data \u2014 a critical window into the health of the U.S. labor market \u2014 will not be released.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Like many other federal offices, the BLS is temporarily closed because of the ongoing government shutdown. <\/p>\n

Until Congress approves its funding, the bureau\u2019s more than 2,000 employees will remain furloughed, unable to release any reports.<\/p>\n

The data blackout comes at a perilous time for the U.S. economy. <\/p>\n

The unemployment rate has steadily ticked up this year, from a seasonally adjusted 4% in January <\/a>to 4.3% in August<\/a>. <\/p>\n

On Wednesday, new private-sector employment data released by payroll processing giant ADP showed a net loss of 32,000 jobs<\/a> in September. Economists had expected a gain of around 45,000 jobs. <\/p>\n

The surprise loss of private-sector jobs only served to compound the value a Friday jobs report could have provided to policymakers and businesses as they try to make sense of the rapid shifts underway in the labor market.<\/p>\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> officials <\/strong>are also considering next steps for interest rates.<\/p>\n

When the Fed cut borrowing costs last month, Chairman Jerome Powell warned that the overall economic picture was so unusual that central bankers were having a hard time forecasting what would come next. <\/p>\n

\u201cOrdinarily, when the labor market is weak, inflation is low, and when the labor market is really strong, that\u2019s when you\u2019ve got to be careful about inflation,\u201d Powell said at a mid-September news conference in Washington. <\/p>\n

Then, as now, the labor market was showing signs of weakness even as inflation crept up.<\/p>\n

As a result of those dueling forces, \u201cthere\u2019s no risk-free path\u201d ahead for the Fed, Powell said. \u201cIt\u2019s quite a difficult situation for policymakers.\u201d<\/p>\n

Now, the Fed could be forced to make another decision on rates this month without the benefit of key federal data.<\/p>\n

And it\u2019s not just the jobs report that could go on hiatus.<\/p>\n

If the shutdown drags on past the middle of October, it could also delay the monthly BLS-produced Consumer Price Index<\/a> and Producer Price Index reports. BLS data on import prices is also expected that week.<\/p>\n

\u201cAssuming the shutdown is over within a couple of weeks, there should still be plenty of time\u201d for the Fed\u2019s interest rate-setting committee to evaluate September\u2019s jobs data before it meets again at the end of the month, analysts at JPMorgan Chase wrote Thursday.<\/p>\n

However, \u201cif there is no employment report, then we expect them to focus on available indicators, including ADP, consumer confidence, jobless claims, and other private-sector measures of employment, job openings, and announced job cuts,\u201d the JPMorgan analysts wrote.<\/p>\n

The Federal Reserve did not immediately reply to a request for comment Thursday about what impact delayed data might have on its upcoming deliberations.<\/p>\n

The September jobs report is most likely already in its \u201cfinal draft\u201d form, former BLS Commissioner William Beach wrote in a blog post<\/a> this week.<\/p>\n

\u201cUsually, BLS staff present the final draft of the jobs report to the commissioner on Wednesday preceding the Friday publication,\u201d Beach wrote<\/a> for Fiscal Lab on Capitol Hill, an independent research center that provides economic data to Congress. <\/p>\n

The final draft allows the BLS commissioner to brief major stakeholders on the day before each jobs Friday, including members of the Federal Reserve board and top White House officials. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe president and his economic team only see the data the day before publication,\u201d Beach wrote. \u201cSo, if there is no publication on Friday,\u201d the administration does not get a preview of it on Thursday.<\/p>\n

Even if the shutdown is resolved in the coming days, it’s still not certain when top officials and the public should expect to see September’s jobs report.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs soon as this government opens…we want to get these numbers out,\u201d Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer told Fox Business on Friday.<\/p>\n

In 2013, it took four days after federal agencies reopened following a 17-day government shutdown for BLS to release the previous month\u2019s jobs data. The monthly Consumer Price Index data was not released for more than a week after the shutdown was over. <\/p>\n

That year, the Fed\u2019s two-day October meeting began with officials still lacking the previous month\u2019s key inflation data. <\/p>\n

It was only on the second day of the meeting that officials were finally able to review the inflation report, just hours before they announced their interest rate decision. <\/p>\n

\"Image:
The Federal Reserve building in Washington.<\/span>Al Drago \/ Bloomberg via Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Further complicating matters for the Fed is that any shutdown creates additional uncertainty of its own in the economy, as thousands of federal workers\u2019 paychecks are delayed and government services are severely restricted.<\/p>\n

Still, a government shutdown alone is unlikely to be enough to shift the Fed\u2019s thinking on interest rates. <\/p>\n

Most economists believe that the current shutdown\u2019s economic impact will be minimal<\/a> and that any dent to growth will be made up in the coming months.<\/p>\n

Fed policymakers already face a formidable challenge: predicting how President Donald Trump\u2019s unprecedented, and rapidly evolving, economic policies will affect the labor market and inflation.<\/p>\n

\u201cWith all this change, a dense fog has fallen,\u201d Richmond, Virginia, Fed President Tom Barkin said in March in a lecture at Washington and Lee University in Lexington, Virginia. <\/p>\n

At the time, Trump had been in office for less than two months and had already set about reversing his predecessor\u2019s economic legacy.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not an everyday \u2018forecasting is hard\u2019 type of fog,\u201d Barkin said. \u201cIt\u2019s a \u2018zero visibility, pull over and turn on your hazards\u2019 type of fog.\u201d <\/p>\n

Six months later, some of that fog appears to have lifted. But as Powell suggested, it is still difficult for the Fed to see what’s coming next. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

For people who closely follow the U.S. economy, the first Friday of every month is known as \u201cjobs Friday,\u201d when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the previous month\u2019s employment report at precisely 8:30 a.m. ET. But on this jobs Friday, September’s employment data \u2014 a critical window into the health of the U.S. labor <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":3810,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-3809","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/marketsfortress.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3809","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/marketsfortress.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/marketsfortress.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marketsfortress.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3809"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/marketsfortress.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3809\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marketsfortress.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3810"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/marketsfortress.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3809"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marketsfortress.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3809"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marketsfortress.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3809"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}